Russia, the U.S. and the Baltics - Interaction in the Past and Present

Title	% from total grade	Grade
1. Individual work	-	-
Within the module, students will prepare for seminars, read recommended readings and prepare a report and its presentation. The objective of the seminars is to develop students’ ability to justify their point of view; to stimulate activity; to test their knowledge of the topic and the material. The objective of the report is to develop the ability to identify the main problem of the topic; to identify and evaluate alternative arguments and points of view; to present one’s own point of view, explaining and arguing why this point of view is more acceptable and superior to any other. The report must compare all possible alternatives, considering all their weaknesses and strengths. Another objective is to develop the skills to independently research situations and problems, evaluate them and develop solutions. In order to evaluate the quality of the study course as a whole, the student must fill out the study course evaluation questionnaire on the Student Portal.

Title	% from total grade	Grade
1. Examination	-	-
According to the description of seminar 16, students will have to submit study paper according to the topic assigned. Provisional name: “Are discussions about the NATO “non-enlargement promises” still important? Why?” Formatting: 5 pages with double spacing, Times New Roman 12 or equivalent; footnotes according to the Chicago Manual of Style.
2. Examination	-	-
Attendance - 10% Activity and preparedness during seminars - 50% Presentation - 10% Research paper - 10% Exam essay - 20%

Analysis of paper trail: Colby Note, 1920 Description Annotation: Students are expected to have read and analysed the strategic importance of the position expressed in the diplomatic documents – Colby Note 1920, looking at ideas about US national interests and views on Baltic statehood and the transformation of the Russian empire. Literature: “The Colby Note”, FRUS 1920.

Analysis of paper trail: Welles Declaration, 1940 Description Annotation: Students are expected to have read and analysed the US diplomatic document on the basis of which a policy of non-recognition of the Soviet occupation and the annexation of the Baltic States was created in 1940. Literature: “The Welles Declaration”, FRUS 1940.

Baltic issue for Stalin and F. D. Roosevelt Description Annotation: We will look at the operational aspects of the Grand Alliance and look into Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s ideas on international order, especially his concept of “four policemen” and analyse its impact on the strategic status of the Baltic States. Literature: John L. Harper, American Visions of Europe (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996, pp. 48-134.

Baltic as Cold War issue: non-recognition policy and “rhetorical missiles” Description Annotation: We will look at the legal aspects, practical consequences and strategic logic that influenced the continuation of the US non-recognition policy regarding the inclusion of the Baltic States in the Soviet Union. Literature: Paul A. Goble, “The Politics of Principle” in John Hiden, Vahur Made, David J. Smith (eds.) The Baltic Question During the Cold War (London: Routledge, 2008); pp. 45-55. Konstantin K. Khudoley, “Soviet Foreign Policy during the Cold War: the Baltic Factor” in John Hiden, Vahur Made, David J. Smith (eds.) The Baltic Question During the Cold War (London: Routledge, 2008); pp. 56-72.

Analysis of paper trail: Gorbachev’s headache: Baltics and Perestroika Description Annotation: Students are expected to have read and analysed evidence of the circumstances of the re-emergence of the “Baltic issue” on the international stage in the context of the USSR’s “perestroika”. Literature: Anatoly Chernyaev, A., My Six Years with Gorbachev (University Park: Pennsylvania State University, 2000), pp. 233-296.

Analysis of paper trail: G.H.W. Bush administration and Chicken Kiev politics Description Annotation: Students are expected to have read and analysed the ideas of the George H.W. Bush administration about the post-Cold War “New World Order” and the strategic vision of those ideas for the Baltic States. Literature: George H. W. Bush, “Remarks to the Supreme Soviet of the Republic of the Ukraine in Kiev, Soviet Union”, 1 August 1991, APP.

NATO “non-enlargement promises”: were there any? Description Annotation: Students are expected to have read and compared arguments in the essays of two historians of the NATO enlargement process, focusing on discussions about whether any promises were made at the end of the Cold War about NATO’s “non-enlargement” and Western countries’ respect for the USSR’s sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. Literature: Mark Kramer, "The Myth of a No-NATO-Enlargement Pledge to Russia", The Washington Quarterly, 32:2 pp. 39-61 Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson, "Deal or No Deal? The End of the Cold War and the U.S. Offer to Limit NATO Expansion", International Security, Vol. 40, No. 4 (Spring 2016), pp. 7–44

NATO “non-enlargement promises”: were there any? Description Annotation: Students are expected to have read and compared arguments in the essays of two historians of the NATO enlargement process, focusing on discussions about whether any promises were made at the end of the Cold War about NATO’s “non-enlargement” and Western countries’ respect for the USSR’s sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. Literature: Mark Kramer, "The Myth of a No-NATO-Enlargement Pledge to Russia", The Washington Quarterly, 32:2 pp. 39-61 Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson, "Deal or No Deal? The End of the Cold War and the U.S. Offer to Limit NATO Expansion", International Security, Vol. 40, No. 4 (Spring 2016), pp. 7–44

What would NATO “non-enlargement promises” mean? Presentations of research paper Description Annotation: Students are expected to have written a research essay analysing different interpretations of the NATO “non-enlargement promises” and making judgements on the political and strategic consequences of this debate. Literature: John Lewis Gaddis, “History, Grand Strategy and NATO Enlargement”, Survival, Vol. 40, No. 2 (Spring 1998), pp. 145-151.

The “Democratic Enlargement” Doctrine of the Bill Clinton administration Description Annotation: We will look at the strategic opportunities of the United States in the context of unipolarity in the 1990s and the related debates. The choice of the Bill Clinton administration to follow the “democratic enlargement” strategy, as well as the impact of that strategy on the Baltic States, will be analysed. Literature: Anthony Lake ,“From Containment to Enlargement”, 21 September 1993, http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/lakedoc.html

George Bush and Vladimir Putin: NATO’s “Open Door Policy” and its limits Description Annotation: We will look at the choice of G.W. Bush administration to continue the “open door” policy of NATO enlargement, which resulted in Baltic States joining the North Atlantic Alliance, which in turn formalised U.S. security guarantees for the Baltic States. We will analyse how Russia’s return to the position of a regional power during Vladimir Putin’s times effectively ended NATO’s “open door” policy after the invasion of Georgia in 2008. Literature: George W. Bush, “Remarks by the President in Address to Faculty and Students of Warsaw University”, June 15, 2001. Vladimir Putin, “Speech and the Following Discussion at the Munich Conference on Security Policy”, February 10, 2007.

Analysis of paper trail: Biden vs Medvedev Description Annotation: Students are expected to have read public statements made by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and U.S. Vice President Joe Biden about “spheres of influence” politics toward the Baltic States. Literature: “Interview given by Dmitry Medvedev to Television Channels Channel One, Rossia, NTV”, August 31, 2008. “Remarks by Vice President Joe Biden at The National Library of Latvia”, August 24, 2016.

Presidents and candidates: analysis of foreign political views Description Annotation: We will look at the Trump administration’s foreign policy priorities and guesses about the “two-track” approach to decision-making. Literature: The Full Statement From Jim Mattis, June 4, 2020, https://www.npr.org/2020/06/04/869262728/read-the-full-statement-from-jim-mattis?t=1601296634310

Analysis of paper trail: Trump and the allies Description Annotation: Students are expected to have read the set of documents that tell about the evolution of Donald Trump’s views on foreign policy issues and, in particular, the U.S. relationship with allies. Literature: Charlie Laderman and Brendan Simms, Donald Trump: The Making of a World View (London: I.B.Tauris, 2017), pp. 7-63, 70-79, 90-94.

Trajectory of the development of Russia as a great power and its effects on the Baltics Description Annotation: We will analyse the arguments that the decline in the US global role will “destabilise regional security systems in Europe and Asia” and delve into predictions that, without US security guarantees for the Baltic States, “Russia is expected to test the borders with “grey zone” hostilities”. Literature: Thomas Wright, “The Folly of Retrenchment”, Foreign Affairs, March-April 2020, pp. 10-18.

Trajectory of the development of the United States as a great power and its effects on the Baltics Description Annotation: We will analyse the arguments put forward by experts advocating for a “progressive” American foreign policy, a reduction in American global activism and a new policy toward Russia and Russia’s “neighbours”. Literature: Stephen Wertheim, “The Price of Primacy”, Foreign Affairs, March-April 2020, pp. 19-29.

Alliances and “spheres of influence” in the 21st century Description Annotation: Students are expected to be able to engage in a discussion from the point of view of realism in international relations about the changing interests of powers. We will analyse the thesis that “spheres of influence” thinking could return to the dominant narrative in international politics. We will discuss whether “spheres of influence, balance of power and alliances ... remain fundamental elements for understanding the international order” and what consequences this type of approach could have for the Baltic States. Literature: Graham Allison, “The New Spheres of Influence”, Foreign Affairs, March-April 2020, pp.30-40.

Analysis of paper trail: Colby Note, 1920 Description Annotation: Students are expected to have read and analysed the strategic importance of the position expressed in the diplomatic documents – Colby Note 1920, looking at ideas about US national interests and views on Baltic statehood and the transformation of the Russian empire. Literature: “The Colby Note”, FRUS 1920.

Analysis of paper trail: Welles Declaration, 1940 Description Annotation: Students are expected to have read and analysed the US diplomatic document on the basis of which a policy of non-recognition of the Soviet occupation and the annexation of the Baltic States was created in 1940. Literature: “The Welles Declaration”, FRUS 1940.

Baltic issue for Stalin and F. D. Roosevelt Description Annotation: We will look at the operational aspects of the Grand Alliance and look into Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s ideas on international order, especially his concept of “four policemen” and analyse its impact on the strategic status of the Baltic States. Literature: John L. Harper, American Visions of Europe (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996, pp. 48-134.

Baltic as Cold War issue: non-recognition policy and “rhetorical missiles” Description Annotation: We will look at the legal aspects, practical consequences and strategic logic that influenced the continuation of the US non-recognition policy regarding the inclusion of the Baltic States in the Soviet Union. Literature: Paul A. Goble, “The Politics of Principle” in John Hiden, Vahur Made, David J. Smith (eds.) The Baltic Question During the Cold War (London: Routledge, 2008); pp. 45-55. Konstantin K. Khudoley, “Soviet Foreign Policy during the Cold War: the Baltic Factor” in John Hiden, Vahur Made, David J. Smith (eds.) The Baltic Question During the Cold War (London: Routledge, 2008); pp. 56-72.

Analysis of paper trail: Gorbachev’s headache: Baltics and Perestroika Description Annotation: Students are expected to have read and analysed evidence of the circumstances of the re-emergence of the “Baltic issue” on the international stage in the context of the USSR’s “perestroika”. Literature: Anatoly Chernyaev, A., My Six Years with Gorbachev (University Park: Pennsylvania State University, 2000), pp. 233-296.

Analysis of paper trail: G.H.W. Bush administration and Chicken Kiev politics Description Annotation: Students are expected to have read and analysed the ideas of the George H.W. Bush administration about the post-Cold War “New World Order” and the strategic vision of those ideas for the Baltic States. Literature: George H. W. Bush, “Remarks to the Supreme Soviet of the Republic of the Ukraine in Kiev, Soviet Union”, 1 August 1991, APP.

NATO “non-enlargement promises”: were there any? Description Annotation: Students are expected to have read and compared arguments in the essays of two historians of the NATO enlargement process, focusing on discussions about whether any promises were made at the end of the Cold War about NATO’s “non-enlargement” and Western countries’ respect for the USSR’s sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. Literature: Mark Kramer, "The Myth of a No-NATO-Enlargement Pledge to Russia", The Washington Quarterly, 32:2 pp. 39-61 Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson, "Deal or No Deal? The End of the Cold War and the U.S. Offer to Limit NATO Expansion", International Security, Vol. 40, No. 4 (Spring 2016), pp. 7–44

NATO “non-enlargement promises”: were there any? Description Annotation: Students are expected to have read and compared arguments in the essays of two historians of the NATO enlargement process, focusing on discussions about whether any promises were made at the end of the Cold War about NATO’s “non-enlargement” and Western countries’ respect for the USSR’s sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. Literature: Mark Kramer, "The Myth of a No-NATO-Enlargement Pledge to Russia", The Washington Quarterly, 32:2 pp. 39-61 Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson, "Deal or No Deal? The End of the Cold War and the U.S. Offer to Limit NATO Expansion", International Security, Vol. 40, No. 4 (Spring 2016), pp. 7–44

What would NATO “non-enlargement promises” mean? Presentations of research paper Description Annotation: Students are expected to have written a research essay analysing different interpretations of the NATO “non-enlargement promises” and making judgements on the political and strategic consequences of this debate. Literature: John Lewis Gaddis, “History, Grand Strategy and NATO Enlargement”, Survival, Vol. 40, No. 2 (Spring 1998), pp. 145-151.

The “Democratic Enlargement” Doctrine of the Bill Clinton administration Description Annotation: We will look at the strategic opportunities of the United States in the context of unipolarity in the 1990s and the related debates. The choice of the Bill Clinton administration to follow the “democratic enlargement” strategy, as well as the impact of that strategy on the Baltic States, will be analysed. Literature: Anthony Lake ,“From Containment to Enlargement”, 21 September 1993, http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/lakedoc.html

George Bush and Vladimir Putin: NATO’s “Open Door Policy” and its limits Description Annotation: We will look at the choice of G.W. Bush administration to continue the “open door” policy of NATO enlargement, which resulted in Baltic States joining the North Atlantic Alliance, which in turn formalised U.S. security guarantees for the Baltic States. We will analyse how Russia’s return to the position of a regional power during Vladimir Putin’s times effectively ended NATO’s “open door” policy after the invasion of Georgia in 2008. Literature: George W. Bush, “Remarks by the President in Address to Faculty and Students of Warsaw University”, June 15, 2001. Vladimir Putin, “Speech and the Following Discussion at the Munich Conference on Security Policy”, February 10, 2007.

Analysis of paper trail: Biden vs Medvedev Description Annotation: Students are expected to have read public statements made by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and U.S. Vice President Joe Biden about “spheres of influence” politics toward the Baltic States. Literature: “Interview given by Dmitry Medvedev to Television Channels Channel One, Rossia, NTV”, August 31, 2008. “Remarks by Vice President Joe Biden at The National Library of Latvia”, August 24, 2016.

Presidents and candidates: analysis of foreign political views Description Annotation: We will look at the Trump administration’s foreign policy priorities and guesses about the “two-track” approach to decision-making. Literature: The Full Statement From Jim Mattis, June 4, 2020, https://www.npr.org/2020/06/04/869262728/read-the-full-statement-from-jim-mattis?t=1601296634310

Analysis of paper trail: Trump and the allies Description Annotation: Students are expected to have read the set of documents that tell about the evolution of Donald Trump’s views on foreign policy issues and, in particular, the U.S. relationship with allies. Literature: Charlie Laderman and Brendan Simms, Donald Trump: The Making of a World View (London: I.B.Tauris, 2017), pp. 7-63, 70-79, 90-94.

Trajectory of the development of Russia as a great power and its effects on the Baltics Description Annotation: We will analyse the arguments that the decline in the US global role will “destabilise regional security systems in Europe and Asia” and delve into predictions that, without US security guarantees for the Baltic States, “Russia is expected to test the borders with “grey zone” hostilities”. Literature: Thomas Wright, “The Folly of Retrenchment”, Foreign Affairs, March-April 2020, pp. 10-18.

Trajectory of the development of the United States as a great power and its effects on the Baltics Description Annotation: We will analyse the arguments put forward by experts advocating for a “progressive” American foreign policy, a reduction in American global activism and a new policy toward Russia and Russia’s “neighbours”. Literature: Stephen Wertheim, “The Price of Primacy”, Foreign Affairs, March-April 2020, pp. 19-29.

Alliances and “spheres of influence” in the 21st century Description Annotation: Students are expected to be able to engage in a discussion from the point of view of realism in international relations about the changing interests of powers. We will analyse the thesis that “spheres of influence” thinking could return to the dominant narrative in international politics. We will discuss whether “spheres of influence, balance of power and alliances ... remain fundamental elements for understanding the international order” and what consequences this type of approach could have for the Baltic States. Literature: Graham Allison, “The New Spheres of Influence”, Foreign Affairs, March-April 2020, pp.30-40.